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Three Dangerous Men

Russia, China, Iran and the Rise of Irregular Warfare

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How three key figures in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran built ruthless irregular warfare campaigns that are eroding American power.

In Three Dangerous Men, defense expert Seth Jones argues that the US is woefully unprepared for the future of global competition. While America has focused on building fighter jets, missiles, and conventional warfighting capabilities, its three principal rivals—Russia, Iran, and China—have increasingly adopted irregular warfare: cyber attacks, the use of proxy forces, propaganda, espionage, and disinformation to undermine American power.

Jones profiles three pioneers of irregular warfare in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran who adapted American techniques and made huge gains without waging traditional warfare: Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov; the deceased Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani; and vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia. Each has spent his career studying American power and devised techniques to avoid a conventional or nuclear war with the US. Gerasimov helped oversee a resurgence of Russian irregular warfare, which included attempts to undermine the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections and the SolarWinds cyber attack. Soleimani was so effective in expanding Iranian power in the Middle East that Washington targeted him for assassination. Zhang Youxia presents the most alarming challenge because China has more power and potential at its disposal.

Drawing on interviews with dozens of US military, diplomatic, and intelligence officials, as well as hundreds of documents translated from Russian, Farsi, and Mandarin, Jones shows how America's rivals have bloodied its reputation and seized territory worldwide. Instead of standing up to autocratic regimes, Jones demonstrates that the United States has largely abandoned the kind of information, special operations, intelligence, and economic and diplomatic action that helped win the Cold War.

In a powerful conclusion, Jones details the key steps the United States must take to alter how it thinks about—and engages in—competition before it is too late.

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    • Publisher's Weekly

      June 28, 2021
      The U.S. is “woefully unprepared” to wage the “asymmetric warfare” favored by its main adversaries, according to this well-sourced yet flawed account. Foreign policy analyst Jones (A Covert Action) claims that America’s “obsession with conventional war,” coupled with the Trump administration’s isolationist tendencies, has left the U.S. vulnerable to cyber espionage, disinformation campaigns, “economic coercion,” and other “gray zone” strategies used by Russia, China, and Iran to compete for global influence. Taking each adversary in turn, Jones identifies the architects of these tactics, including Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission; Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov, whose plans for seizing Crimea in 2014 drew from the playbook the U.S. used to overthrow Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011; and Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who led the paramilitary Quds Force until his 2020 assassination in a U.S. drone strike. Unfortunately, the extended profiles of these officials come at the expense of a more complete assessment of the damage they’ve wrought, and Jones, who cites many former CIA and Defense Department officials, doesn’t fully reckon with the ethical and legal implications of his call for America to ramp up its irregular warfare capabilities. This one-sided account feels more alarmist than essential.

    • Kirkus

      August 1, 2021
      Disturbing accounts of three little-known figures in three rival governments working to make their nations great. "Their main tools are not fighter jets, battle tanks, or even infantry soldiers," writes international security expert Jones, "but hackers, spies, special operations forces, and private military companies with clandestine links to state security agencies." Delving deeply into Russian, Persian, and Mandarin documents (a tactic that U.S. intelligence services largely neglect), the author focuses on Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russian chief of the general staff; Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani (d. 2020); and Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission. All have acknowledged that a hot war with America--in their minds an aggressive power seeking world domination--would be disastrous, and all learned from the expensive failures of the American strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have also blamed U.S. subversion for the "color" revolutions that overthrew dictators across the Middle East. Gerasimov engineered the annexation of Crimea and crippled the infrastructure of Ukraine with cyberattacks, and he continues to spread turmoil in the U.S. via massive hacking and social media disinformation campaigns. America's generous gift--invading Iraq--greatly helped Soleimani in his goal of making Iran the Middle East's dominant power. American leaders heralded the 2020 drone attack that killed him as a great victory, but the U.S. has a long history of announcing victory in the region. Although representing a nation vastly more powerful than Russia or Iran, Zhang Youxia oversees a similarly intense campaign of propaganda, espionage, and economic warfare. An astute analyst of complex global affairs, Jones reminds us that the U.S. won the Cold War when populations in the Soviet Union and its satellites rose up against tyranny--and Americans officials encouraged them. Back then, the government invested in language skills and expertise to better understand the enemies and tempt their often restive citizens with the liberties and prosperity they lacked. A discomfiting reminder that the brain is often mightier than the sword.

      COPYRIGHT(2021) Kirkus Reviews, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    • Library Journal

      July 30, 2021

      The latest work by Jones (director, International Security Program, Ctr. for Strategic and International Studies; A Covert Action) argues that the principal opponents of the United States (Russia, Iran, and China, per Jones) have adopted a strategy of "irregular" or "asymmetrical" warfare, for which the U.S. is ill-prepared and vulnerable. Jones explains the three nations' policies through short biographies of major strategic thinkers: Russian general Valery Gerasimov, Iranian general Qassim Soleimani (who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020), and Chinese general Zhang Youxia. His evidence that these figures are de-emphasizing conventional warfare is weaker, but Jones's case that they advocate asymmetrical tactics (e.g., proxy forces, cyberwar, and special operations) is most convincing. Ironically, he writes, earlier American operations (the First Gulf War, Kosovo, Libya) became critical sources of change for each country's strategy. His use of open-sourced evidence and interviews makes it especially persuasive, and the strength of the book lies in clear expression and accomplished sourcing. Jones's analysis of decision-making by his subjects and the top leadership (Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, Xi Jinping) occasionally falls short. Jones offers a prescriptive agenda to meet the challenges, including greater allied cooperation, informational technology, and counterintelligence. VERDICT Overall, this is a highly recommended look at modern warfare campaigns.--Zachary Irwin, formerly at Penn State, Behrend

      Copyright 2021 Library Journal, LLC Used with permission.

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